Insulin Resistance and Atherogenic Dyslipidemia Drive Cardiac Remodeling and Cardiovascular Events After Kidney Transplantation

Background: Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality after kidney transplantation. The relative contribution of metabolic abnormalities and inflammatory burden to cardiac remodeling and subsequent clinical outcomes in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) remains incompletely understood. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 152 KTRs underwent comprehensive cardiovascular evaluation at a stable post-transplant time point (12 ± 4 months after transplantation). Metabolic phenotype was assessed using metabolic syndrome and indices of insulin resistance and atherogenic dyslipidemia (TyG index, TG/HDL ratio, and atherogenic index of plasma AIP). Inflammatory status was evaluated using hs-CRP and complete blood count-derived indices. Echocardiographic damage composite (EDC) was defined as the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy, diastolic dysfunction, or left atrial enlargement. Patients were followed for major adverse clinical outcome (MACO), defined as cardiovascular event, graft failure, or death, and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Results: At baseline, 78 patients (51.3%) met criteria for EDC. EDC was strongly associated with higher TyG, AIP, TG/HDL, LDL/HDL ratio, and metabolic syndrome, whereas inflammatory markers showed no association. In multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, eGFR, and proteinuria, TyG remained independently associated with EDC (OR 1.13 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI 1.05–1.21; p = 0.001), independent of hs-CRP. Similar results were observed when AIP was evaluated in place of TyG (OR 10.39, 95% CI 2.22–48.71; p = 0.003). During follow-up, 78 patients developed MACO and 49 developed MACCE. In Cox regression analysis, graft dysfunction and inflammatory markers independently predicted MACO, whereas TyG was no longer significant. In contrast, TyG remained an independent predictor of MACCE after adjustment for confounders and inflammatory markers (HR 1.10 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI 1.04–1.16; p < 0.001). Similar results were observed when AIP was tested in place of TyG (HR 10.8, 95% CI 3.06–38.11; p < 0.001). Echocardiographic damage did not independently predict outcomes after adjustment. Conclusions: In KTRs, metabolic abnormalities reflecting insulin resistance and atherogenic dyslipidemia are closely associated with cardiac remodeling one year after transplantation and remain specifically linked to subsequent cardiovascular events. In contrast, systemic inflammation and graft dysfunction are the primary determinants of overall adverse clinical outcomes. Simple metabolic indices such as TyG and AIP may provide practical tools for cardiovascular risk stratification in this population. In Cox proportional hazards models, TyG (HR 1.102, 95% CI 1.043–1.164, p = 0.001) and AIP (HR 10.8, 95% CI 3.06–38.11, p < 0.001) were independently associated with cardiovascular events during follow-up, underscoring the role of atherogenic dyslipidemia in cardiovascular risk.