Forecasting Suspended Sediment Concentration and Sediment Flux in the Lower Mekong Delta Using Machine Learning

Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and sediment flux (SF) are critical indicators of sediment delivery in the Lower Mekong and underpin deltaic geomorphic stability and ecosystem services. With recent evidence of declining sediment supply caused by upstream regulation and intensive in-channel extraction, there is a pressing need for data-efficient tools to reproduce non-linear sediment dynamics and assist management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). This study evaluates three machine-learning algorithms—Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—for data-driven prediction of SSC (2009–2023) and SF (2009–2021) at Tan Chau (Viet Nam). The predictive models were developed using daily discharge inputs from Kratie (Cambodia) and local hydrological data, including water levels and discharge, from the Tan Chau station. Across the held-out testing dataset, all models captured substantial variability in both targets, with consistently higher performance for SF than for SSC. RF achieved the highest skill (SSC: R2 = 0.783; SF: R2 = 0.867), followed by XGBoost and then SVM. Variable-importance analysis indicates that upstream discharge at Kratie is the most influential predictor for both SSC and SF, consistent with basin-scale hydrological forcing governing downstream sediment transport capacity. The observed record at Tan Chau further suggests an attenuation of wet-season SSC peaks during 2018–2022 relative to earlier years, signalling potential sediment-starvation dynamics that warrant continued monitoring. Overall, the results demonstrate the utility of ML-based sediment prediction models as a complement to conventional monitoring and as an evidence base to inform sediment-aware river–delta management and risk mitigation in the Lower Mekong.