Biological and environmental drivers of early life fawn survival in a declining pronghorn population

Pronghorn Antilocapra americana occupy only a portion of their historical range and in Oklahoma occur at the eastern edge of the species' contemporary distribution. Monitoring has suggested pronghorn populations in Oklahoma have declined in recent years. We captured and collared 125 adult females across two winters, monitored them for signs of parturition during each subsequent spring, and then captured and radio‐collared 70 fawns ≤ 4 days old. We assessed cause‐specific mortality, estimated proportional survival, and visualized survival of fawns through 60 days of life with Kaplan–Meier curves. Nearly 87% of fawn mortalities were attributed to predation, with > 77% of predations attributed to coyotes Canis latrans . Our results indicated that fawn survival was lowest during the first 15 days of life, with 33% of fawns surviving to 15 days and 12% surviving to 60 days. We used known‐fate models to evaluate the influence of biological factors (i.e. sex, mass, birth timing), environmental factors (i.e. ambient temperature, precipitation, vegetation), and temporal variation on the probability of early life (i.e. the first 15 days) survival. For each adult female with a collared fawn, we used female space‐use patterns for 30 days before and 15 days after parturition to collect environmental covariates. Early life probability of survival was lower for larger fawns, those born earlier in the parturition period (i.e. earlier in the year relative to the range of parturition days), and those with higher pre‐parturition temperatures; daily probability of survival decreased with time‐since‐parturition within the first 15 days of life. Our results indicate poor fawn survival, highlight a potential limitation of population growth, and can inform population management by identifying factors influencing early life fawn survival.