RNN Architecture-Based Short-Term Forecasting Framework for Rooftop PV Surplus to Enable Smart Energy Scheduling in Micro-Residential Communities

With growing community awareness of greenhouse gas emissions and their environmental consequences, distributed rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems have emerged as a sustainable energy alternative in residential settings. However, the high penetration of these systems without effective operational strategies poses significant challenges for local distribution grids. Specifically, the estimation of surplus energy production from these systems, closely linked to complex outdoor weather conditions and seasonal fluctuations, often lacks an accurate forecasting approach to effectively capture the temporal dynamics of system output during peak periods. In response, this study proposes a recurrent neural network (RNN)- based forecasting framework to predict rooftop PV surplus in the context of micro-residential communities over time horizons not exceeding 48 h. The framework includes standard RNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks. In this context, the study employed estimated surplus energy datasets from six single-family detached houses, along with weather-related variables and seasonal patterns, to evaluate the framework’s effectiveness. Results demonstrated the significant effectiveness of all framework models in forecasting surplus energy across seasonal scenarios, with low MAPE values of up to 3.02% and 3.59% over 24-h and 48-h horizons, respectively. Simultaneously, BiLSTM models consistently demonstrated a higher capacity to capture surplus energy fluctuations during peak periods than their counterparts. Overall, the developed data-driven framework demonstrates potential to enable short-term smart energy scheduling in micro-residential communities, supporting electric vehicle charging from single-family detached houses through efficient rooftop PV systems. It also provides decision-making insights for evaluating renewable energy contributions in the residential sector.