Estimating the Vulnerability to Hydrometeorological Phenomena in Mexican Coffee Crops

Coffee plantations are highly vulnerable to climatic factors. In this regard, the vulnerability of coffee agroecosystems to extreme hydrometeorological events has been underexplored. This research proposes a method to assess coffee plantations’ vulnerability to five phenomena that have led to disaster declarations in the municipalities where they are cultivated: extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, floods, snow and low temperatures, and drought. This study considered coffee production, local climate information, hydrometeorological records, and environmental protection actions, spanning 22 years in the eastern state of Veracruz, Mexico. All data were normalized and evaluated for three production values: harvested area ratio, yield, and volume. The Exposition accounted for the number of events, correlating production data with phenomena to assess sensitivity, while the adaptive capacity was assessed by considering environmental protection actions. The results indicated that the most frequent phenomena were extreme rainfall, followed by tropical cyclones, snow and low temperatures, droughts, and floods. However, tropical cyclones accounted for the highest number of vulnerabilities, and drought caused the highest level of vulnerabilities. Snow and cold temperatures reduced vulnerabilities, and floods have non-statistical effects. In general, coffee agroecosystems have a low vulnerability index (6.21 on a scale of 15) due to their location within the local forest.