Populations in the Anthropocene: Is Fertility the Problem?

The article addresses the question of the relative importance of human population size and growth in relation to the environmental problems of planetary heating and biodiversity loss in the current, Anthropocene era. To what extent could policies to encourage lower fertility be justified, while observing that this subject is an inherently contested one. It is proposed that a helpful distinction can be made between specific threats to habitats and biodiversity, as opposed to those related to global energy use and warming. Pressures of over-population can be important in relation to the former. But with regard to the latter—rising per capita energy usage—reduced fertility has historically been positively, not negatively correlated. A case can be made that the high-fertility nations of sub-Saharan Africa could benefit from culturally respectful fertility reduction policies. However, where planetary heating is concerned, it is the hydrocarbon-based, per capita energy-consumption patterns of already low-fertility populations on the other five inhabited continents that is rather more critical. While it will be helpful to stabilise global human population, this cannot be viewed as a solution to the climate crisis problem of this century. That requires relentless focus on reducing hydrocarbon use and confronting the rising inequality since c.1980 that has been exacerbating competitive materialist consumerism. This involves the ideological negotiation of values to promote a culture change that understands and politically embraces a new economics of both human and planetary balance, equity, and distribution. Students of populations can contribute by re-assessing what can be the appropriate demographic units and measures for policies engaging with the challenges of the Anthropocene.