Culture Mediates Climate Opinion Change: A System Dynamics Model of Risk Perception, Polarization, and Policy Effectiveness

Despite the growing impacts of climate change worldwide, achieving consensus on climate action remains a challenge partly because of heterogeneity in perceptions of climate risks within and across countries. Lack of consensus has hindered global collective action. We use a system dynamics approach to examine how interactions among cultural, socio-political, psychological, and institutional factors shape public support or opposition for climate mitigation policy. We investigate the conditions under which the dominant public opinion about climate policy can shift within a 20-year time frame. We observed opinion shifts in 20% of simulations, primarily in individualistic cultural contexts with high perceived climate risk. Changing the dominant opinion was especially difficult to achieve in collectivistic cultures, as we observed no shifts in dominant opinion within the parameter ranges examined. Our study underscores the importance of understanding how cultural context mediates the approaches needed to effectively mobilize collective climate action.