Drivers of Mangrove Decline and Pathways for Community-Led Restoration and Climate Resilience in Coastal Cities: Evidence from the Dhag’an Valley Mangrove Forest, Bosaso, Somalia.

Background Mangrove ecosystems in fragile coastal cities are under increasing threat from anthropogenic pressures and climate variability. In Bosaso, Somalia, the Dhag’an Valley mangrove forest plays a vital role in shoreline stabilization, biodiversity support, and community livelihoods. However, its degradation has accelerated due to unchecked human activity and weak institutional oversight. Methods This study employed a mixed-methods approach combining ecological quadrat sampling, participatory mapping, and semi-structured interviews with local residents, fishers, and municipal stakeholders. Tree density, canopy health, and signs of human disturbance were recorded across three ecological zones: shoreline, creek channels, and inland edges. Community narratives were analyzed to identify restoration priorities and resilience strategies. Results Quadrat data revealed significant variation in tree health and regeneration potential. Creek channels exhibited the highest tree density and ecological resilience, while inland edges showed poor regeneration and heavy grazing pressure. Shoreline zones were marked by erosion, pollution, and moderate canopy degradation. Community interviews highlighted strong local knowledge of mangrove dynamics and a willingness to engage in restoration, though constrained by limited resources and unclear governance structures. Conclusions Mangrove decline in Bosaso is driven by a combination of ecological stressors and socio-political fragility. However, community-led restoration—anchored in local knowledge and supported by inclusive governance—offers a viable pathway for climate resilience. The study recommends integrating ecological monitoring with participatory planning, enhancing institutional support, and securing ethical frameworks for community engagement. These findings contribute to broader efforts to safeguard coastal ecosystems in fragile urban contexts.