Long-term drought dynamics and agricultural implications in eastern Amhara Region of Ethiopia (1901–2020): Insights from the Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index

Understanding long-term drought dynamics in regions dominated by rain-fed agriculture systems is essential for climate adaptation planning. Thus, monitoring drought enables the provision of data for informed decision-making, which is critical to reducing drought risk. This study reconstructs spatiotemporal drought variability in the eastern Amhara region of Ethiopia over 120 years (1901–2020) using the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) ( https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi ) at 0.5° resolution were analyzed across 11 representative meteorological stations. Spatial interpolation using universal Kriging was applied to identify geographical patterns of drought. Temporal trends, recurrence intervals, and spatial patterns were assessed, and results were triangulated with key informant interviews. The region experienced drought conditions of varying severity approximately every 2.4 years. Mild and moderate droughts occurred more frequently, while severe and extreme droughts recurred roughly once per decade. A marked clustering of severe and extreme drought episodes was observed after 1970, indicating intensification in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. In peak years such as 1922 and 1984, over 80–90% of stations recorded severe to extreme drought conditions. Within the Eastern Amhara Region, particularly the Northern, northeastern, eastern, south-central, and southwestern areas, have frequently experienced severe and extremely severe drought, reflecting sensitivity to large-scale climate drivers. Interview participants confirmed that drought incidents have become increasingly frequent which has impeded the livelihoods of subsistence farmers. We recommend establishing comprehensive drought-monitoring and early-warning systems to inform the design of proactive measures.., Shifting to drought-tolerant crop varieties, promoting small-scale irrigation, diversifying crops to reduce reliance on high-risk crops, and developing alternative livelihoods for communities heavily dependent on agriculture are crucial. By bridging climate science with agricultural practice, this research contributes evidence for designing policies that strengthen resilience farming systems in one of Africa’s most drought-prone regions.