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Early adolescence is a critical period of dual ecological and physiological transition, during which individuals are highly vulnerable to cumulative risks across multiple ecosystems, making them prone to unbearable psychological pain arising from threats to the self. Grounded in bioecological theory, this study employs a longitudinal design to investigate the dynamic relationships among cumulative ecological risk, future expectations, and psychological pain. A total of 655 Chinese adolescents (50.22% boys; Mage = 14.13 years) participated in a three-wave longitudinal survey with 6-month intervals. Using a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) to disentangle between- and within-person effects, the study yielded several key within-person findings: (1) Cumulative risk and future expectations showed significant bidirectional negative associations; (2) Future expectations negatively predicted subsequent psychological pain, but the reverse path was not significant; (3) Cumulative risk and psychological pain showed significant bidirectional positive associations; (4) Mediation analysis confirmed that future expectations played a significant longitudinal mediating role in the pathway from cumulative risk to psychological pain, but not in the reverse direction. Furthermore, multi-group analyses revealed no significant gender differences in these core dynamic pathways. These findings elucidate the proximal psychological process through which chronic adversity impairs mental health—by eroding positive cognitions about the future—and highlight future expectations as a pivotal target for preventive intervention. • Applied RI-CLPM to model within-person dynamics among three core variables. • Found reciprocal negative relationships between cumulative risk and future expectations. • Found reciprocal positive links between cumulative risk and psychological pain. • Future expectations mediated the path from risk to pain but not the reverse. • No significant gender differences were observed in these core pathways.
Jing et al. (Fri,) studied this question.