A Study on the Measurement and Spatial Non-Equilibrium of Marine New-Quality Productivity in China: Differences, Polarization, and Causes

Compared to traditional marine productivity, marine new-quality productivity (MNQP) is composed of advanced productive forces driven by the deepening application of new technologies, is characterized by the rapid emergence of new industries, new business models, and new modes of operation, and is marked by a substantial increase in total factor productivity in the marine economy. It has, therefore, become a new engine and pathway for China’s development into a maritime power. The main research approaches and conclusions of this paper are as follows: ① Using a combined order relation analysis method–Entropy Weight Method (G1-EWM) weighting method that integrates subjective and objective factors, we measured the development level of China’s MNQP from 2006 to 2021 across two dimensions: “factor structure” and “quality and efficiency”. The findings indicate that China’s MNQP is developing robustly and still holds considerable potential for improvement. ② Utilizing Gaussian Kernel Density Estimation and Spatial Markov Chain analysis to examine the dynamic evolution of China’s MNQP, the study identifies breaking the low-end lock-in of MNQP as crucial for accelerating balanced development. Spatial imbalances in China’s MNQP may exist both at the national level and within the three major marine economic zones. ③ To further examine potential spatial imbalances, Dagum Gini decomposition was employed to assess regional disparities in China’s MNQP. The DER polarization index and EGR polarization index were used to analyze spatial polarization levels, revealing an intensifying spatial imbalance in China’s MNQP. ④ Finally, geographic detectors were employed to identify the factors influencing spatial imbalances in China’s MNQP. Results indicate that these imbalances result from the combined effects of multiple factors, with marine economic development emerging as the core determinant exerting a dominant influence. The core conclusions of this study provide theoretical support and practical evidence for advancing the enhancement of China’s MNQP, thereby contributing to the realization of the goal of building a maritime power.