From Smuggling Routes to Court Cases: Unveiling the Dynamics of Pangolin Trafficking in China (2011−2022)

Background and Research Aims: Pangolins are the most trafficked wild mammals globally, driven by highly lucrative commercial demand for their scales and meat, with China remaining a primary consumer despite trade bans. This study aims to analyze the market dynamics of illegal pangolin trade in China to inform effective conservation strategies. Methods: We examined 603 court cases from 2011 to 2022, sourced from the China Judgments Online website, involving 24,924 kg of pangolin scales and 9,400 pangolins. Data were collected through keyword searches and manual review of relevant webpage content on the China Judgments Online platform. Data analysis focused on smuggling routes, domestic trade patterns, and correlations with provincial GPP, population size, and police enforcement. Results: Seized pangolin shipments predominantly originated from Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Nigeria, with the latter serving as the largest-scale exporter. Domestically, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi were key sources of trafficked pangolins, while Hebei and Guangdong supplied the most scales. Guangdong exhibited the highest demand, with the greatest number of smuggled pangolins and scale weight. Individual counts and scale weight negatively correlated with provincial GPP but positively with population size. Police enforcement positively correlated with case frequency and individual counts. Conclusion: The illegal pangolin trade in China is driven by high demand in southern provinces, particularly Guangdong, with significant international sourcing from Southeast Asia and Africa. Socioeconomic factors like population size and lower GPP influence trade intensity, while enforcement impacts case detection. Implications for Conservation: Targeted interventions in high-demand provinces like Guangdong and enhanced border controls at key smuggling routes (e.g., Vietnam, Nigeria) are critical. Strengthening police enforcement and addressing socioeconomic drivers in populous, lower-GPP regions can reduce trade. These insights support global pangolin conservation by guiding policy and enforcement strategies.