Abstract Invasions by hornets have occurred worldwide, threatening crops, native species, and honey bees. For emerging invasive hornets, habitat suitability models can estimate their potential distribution, rate of spread, and impacts. Recently, the greater banded hornet ( Vespa tropica ) was detected in Guam, where it poses a threat to honey bees, although an understanding of potential habitat suitability and spread of this species is lacking. Here we used habitat distribution models to assess habitat suitability for the greater banded hornet. We also estimated potential risks at US ports by assessing the overlap between suitable hornet habitats and human ports of entry. We identified diurnal range, isothermality, and maximum temperature of the warmest month as key factors that mediate the suitability of the greater banded hornet worldwide. While the greater banded hornet occupies a small realized climatic niche in Guam, it has the potential to expand into parts of the Pacific Northwest US and Hawaiian Islands. Our model suggests that the risk of invasion varies across ports of entry, with Atlantic ports potentially more susceptible than Pacific ones. Because of its potential to cause ecological harm, our study underscores the need to eradicate the greater banded hornet in Guam and implement biosecurity risk assessments in other vulnerable areas.
Aidoo et al. (Fri,) studied this question.