This paper extends the WEO Methodology Manual's tier classification framework (Chapter 5) and Coordination Connection taxonomy (Chapter 7) to propose tier-crossing as an additional analytical dimension. The Warmth Engine Observatory classifies geopolitical events into three tiers based on coordination scale—Tier 1 (Cross-Bloc Coordination), Tier 2 (Between-Bloc Fragmentation), and Tier 3 (Intra-Bloc Coordination). The framework examines what additional meaning may emerge when Coordination Connections link events across different tiers versus within the same tier. The analysis operates at the directional level—examining tier-to-tier patterns rather than which of the seven CC types facilitate each crossing. Mechanism-specific analysis awaits sufficient data accumulation. Drawing on multilevel governance theory, network science, and tech decoupling research, this paper identifies six tier-crossing patterns with varying levels of theoretical precedent in existing literature. All patterns are analysed within the C-MAD (Computational Mutual Assured Destruction) theoretical framework established in The Coordination Imperative (Warmth Engine, 2025). The T2→T1 pattern (fragmentation creating coordination pressure) represents a novel operationalisation of C-MAD theory with limited direct precedent. Metric operationalisation requires the database to reach operational threshold before meaningful calculation becomes possible. This paper establishes intellectual priority on the tier-crossing analytical framework. This paper is a parallel methodology extension of the WEO Methodology Manual, sibling to Towards Coordination Science, and can be read independently. January 2026
Engine Warmth (Sat,) studied this question.