Cash Transfers and State Hesitation in Sub‐Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT Despite robust evidence demonstrating that cash transfers reduce poverty and stimulate local economies across sub‐Saharan Africa, government adoption remains limited and tentative. This paper examines why states hesitate to institutionalize programs when research consistently shows positive impacts. Using a qualitative comparative political economy analysis of five countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, and Tanzania) selected for variation in program maturity, fiscal commitment, and political drivers, I identify three barriers explaining the evidence‐implementation gap: dependency narratives contradicting empirical evidence, weak political incentives for serving marginalized populations, and fears of fiscally irreversible commitments. Political economy dynamics, rather than fiscal constraints alone, drive resistance. Comparative analysis reveals distinct hesitation patterns: maintenance of limited scale despite positive evaluations, persistent donor dependence over domestic financing, and restrictive categorical eligibility excluding working‐age poor. South Africa achieved comprehensive coverage through rights‐based approaches but faces sustainability challenges. Electoral pressures catalyzed expansion in Nigeria and Zambia, while productivist ideologies constrained Tanzania's technically successful programs. Ghana's incrementalism reflects fiscal caution without ideological opposition. This study contributes a systematic framework for understanding state hesitation and provides actionable implementation strategies emphasizing narrative reframing, coalition building, and gradual fiscal transitions. Success requires aligning political incentives with technical design to establish cash transfers as routine policy tools.