From Transcript to Argument Map: How George Soros Might Read a Critical-Minerals Macro Narrative

This paper extends transcript-based argument mapping by applying explicit “investor lenses” as analytic priors—especially a reflexivity-centered (Soros-style) reading—to stress-test persuasive macro narratives. It converts a long-form transcript into an argument map and Toulmin structure, then uses reflexivity to identify feedback loops, overshoot risk, and pivot conditions that can reconcile apparent contradictions in the narrative. The output is a compact, replicable framework that specifies observable pivot signals, undercutters, and falsifiers rather than a single-point forecast. The contribution is methodological: adversarial interpretation and test design for narrative claims under reflexive dynamics.