Traditional early warning scores (NEWS, NEWS2, MEWS) have moderate accuracy in predicting 30-day mortality and ICU admission among older adults in the ED (e.g., NEWS AUROC ~0.82), with enhanced performance when adjusted for age, frailty, or combined with novel biomarkers (e.g., Copeptin-NEWS AUROC 0.854).
Do Early Warning Scores accurately predict mortality and ICU admission in older adults presenting to the Emergency Department?
Traditional Early Warning Scores have variable and reduced prognostic accuracy in older ED patients, highlighting the need for personalized, adaptive models that incorporate age, frailty, and comorbidities.
Effect estimate: AUROC values ranged from 0.57 to 0.976 depending on score and population subgroup; notable examples: IEWS AUROC 0.89 vs. NEWS 0.82; NEWS2+age AUROC 0.899; NEWS≥8 OR 5.37 for ICU admission; ROSS AUROC 0.87 surpassing NEWS 0.74; MEWS AUC 0.927 predicting mortality in pneumonia; NEWS2+ETCO2+PI AUC 0.804 vs. NEWS2 AUC 0.769; Copeptin >19.78 pg/ml + NEWS >8.5 predictive value 0.854
p-value: p=Most significant p < 0.001; selected p-values reported per studies
Background: The growing use of Emergency Departments (EDs) by older adults highlights the need for early and accurate identification of clinical deterioration. Early Warning Scores (EWSs) are widely implemented tools based on standardized vital sign thresholds; however, their performance in elderly patients is inconsistent, likely reflecting the biological heterogeneity, multimorbidity, and reduced physiological reserve typical of this population. Objectives: This narrative review aims to summarize current evidence on the use of EWSs in adults aged ≥ 65 years presenting to the ED, with a specific focus on mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to discuss their role within the evolving framework of personalized medicine. Sources: A narrative review of 36 clinical studies published between 2014 and 2025 was conducted. Content: Traditional scores such as National Early Warning Score (NEWS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS) and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) show variable and often reduced prognostic accuracy in older and frail patients. Evidence consistently suggests that applying uniform cut-off values fails to capture individual vulnerability in elderly patients. The integration of age, frailty, comorbidities, and baseline physiological status improves risk stratification. Second-generation tools—including Copeptin-NEWS, NEWS-L, suPAR-NEWS, OPERA, and RISE UP—as well as artificial intelligence-based models, represent emerging personalized approaches to clinical deterioration prediction. Implications: No single score currently provides reliable early risk prediction for all elderly ED patients. Moving beyond “one-size-fits-all” EWSs toward adaptive, person-centered models may better reflect the complexity of geriatric emergency care and improve prognostic accuracy.
Maccauro et al. (Fri,) conducted a review in Older adults aged 65 years and older presenting to the emergency department with acute illness (n=365,780). Early Warning Scores (EWSs) including NEWS, NEWS2, MEWS, ViEWS, RAPS, REMS, and novel composite scores and biomarkers (e.g., Copeptin-NEWS, NEWS-L, suPAR-NEWS, OPERA, RISE UP) vs. Standard EWSs without age or frailty adjustment, or other risk scores such as qSOFA, CURB65 was evaluated on Prediction of in-hospital or 30-day mortality and ICU admission (AUROC values ranged from 0.57 to 0.976 depending on score and population subgroup; notable examples: IEWS AUROC 0.89 vs. NEWS 0.82; NEWS2+age AUROC 0.899; NEWS≥8 OR 5.37 for ICU admission; ROSS AUROC 0.87 surpassing NEWS 0.74; MEWS AUC 0.927 predicting mortality in pneumonia; NEWS2+ETCO2+PI AUC 0.804 vs. NEWS2 AUC 0.769; Copeptin >19.78 pg/ml + NEWS >8.5 predictive value 0.854, p=Most significant p < 0.001; selected p-values reported per studies). Traditional early warning scores (NEWS, NEWS2, MEWS) have moderate accuracy in predicting 30-day mortality and ICU admission among older adults in the ED (e.g., NEWS AUROC ~0.82), with enhanced performance when adjusted for age, frailty, or combined with novel biomarkers (e.g., Copeptin-NEWS AUROC 0.854).