Nutrient runoff from agricultural activities in the watershed of Western Lake Erie (WLE) is a dominant driver of harmful algal blooms (HABs). While phosphorus (P) is a key factor causing these blooms and has been the focus for researchers and policymakers, the influence of nitrogen (N) on bloom dynamics has been overlooked. Total Kjeldahl N (TKN; organic N and ammonium N) has not been the focus of eutrophication research but was recently linked to bloom development in WLE. Here, monotonic and oscillatory statistical trend analyses were performed to interpret long-term (1982 to 2022) patterns of TKN in the Maumee River and were compared to algal biomass data as chlorophyll a. A predictive regression model used principal component analysis to estimate a chlorophyll-based index of HABs in WLE, and a systematic iterative process identified that TKN influences bloom dynamics along with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total suspended solids (TSS) and flow. Although TKN loads exhibited a long-term decline, this decrease did not correspond to reduced HAB severity, reflecting the strong influence of flow-driven hydrologic variability on nutrient delivery and bloom response. The modeling results demonstrate that TKN, together with SRP, TSS, and flow, significantly contributes to predicting bloom magnitude. These findings highlight the need for dual-nutrient (N and P) management strategies and additional analyses of nutrient–hydrology interactions to improve HAB mitigation in WLE.
Khan et al. (Wed,) studied this question.