Evidence-Based Governance in Disaster Risk Management: The Fudai Case and the Imperative of Tail Risk Mitigation in Public Administration

Public administration faces an inherent tension between immediate political pressures and long-term risk mitigation strategies. This paper examines the paradigmatic case of Fudai, where Mayor Kotaku Wamura’s evidence-based approach to disaster risk management, though initially derided as wasteful, ultimately saved the entire village from the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami. Through systematic analysis of this case and contemporary disaster risk management literature, we identify critical principles for addressing high-impact low-probability (HILP) events in public policy. Our findings demonstrate that evidence-based decision-making grounded in historical analysis, technical excellence exceeding minimum standards, and unwavering commitment to human safety—despite political opposition—constitutes the most effective framework for catastrophic risk mitigation. We propose a conceptual model termed “Nano-Impression Governance,” emphasizing how seemingly small administrative decisions, when properly calibrated to tail risks, can produce exponentially disproportionate protective outcomes. This research contributes to public administration theory by synthesizing disaster risk management, evidence-based policy, and tail risk literature into actionable governance principles for managing extreme uncertainty.