The introduction and further spread of the defoliator Lymantria mathura (Moore, 1865), a pest of deciduous and coniferous tree species that is currently absent in Ukraine, poses a potential threat to the country’s ecosystems. This highlights the necessity for a comprehensive risk assessment, considering Ukraine's favorable climatic conditions, the availability of host plants, and the country's active involvement in global trade. The purpose of this study is to model the potential range of L. mathura in Ukraine based on an analysis of the spatial distribution of biological objects, considering environmental and geographical bioclimatic conditions within its current range, and to assess the risk of invasion by this species. Using MapInfo Pro 15.0 (ESTIMap) and IDRISI Selva (Clark Labs) software, it was determined that almost the entire territory of Ukraine is potentially suitable for the acclimatization and settlement of this pest, except for the highlands of the Ukrainian Carpathians, which constitute approximately 1% of the country's total area. The model showed that several of Ukraine's bioclimatic factors, including long-term averages, correspond to those within its current natural range (average annual temperature, temperature of the warmest month, and hydrothermal coefficient). The main limiting factor for the species’ spread is the average annual temperature of the coldest month. The invasion risk of L. mathura and its potential threat to Ukraine’s plant resources were assessed as high. To prevent the pest’s invasion, it is proposed that L. mathura be included in the A1 List (quarantine pests not present in Ukraine) of the "List of Regulated Harmful Organisms in Ukraine," which would prohibit the potential introduction of the pest. Preventing the invasion of L. mathura will support the conservation of Ukraine’s plant resources (both forest and agricultural) and minimize potential economic losses caused by this pest.
Bondareva et al. (Sun,) studied this question.