Analysis of Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Water Level Forecasts in Small and Medium-Sized Rivers

Key Points

• Evaluate factors affecting the accuracy of water level forecasts in small and medium-sized rivers.
• Built a forecasting system at 61 locations across small and medium-sized rivers.
• Assessed the impact of basin area, region, calibration flood accuracy, assimilation interval, and lead time.
• Utilized particle filter for data assimilation to enhance forecast performance.
• Calibration accuracy, assimilation interval, and lead time significantly impacted forecast reliability.
• High-frequency assimilation improved performance by reducing underestimation of water levels.
• Short-term precipitation forecasts led to high-accuracy predictions of peak water levels.