Estimation of Potential Damage to Paddy Rice Caused by Failure of Pre-Discharge According to the Growth Stages in Irrigation Reservoirs Across Japan

Key Points

• The research aims to estimate the potential economic damage to paddy rice due to inaccurate pre-discharge operations based on weather forecasts.
• Utilized machine learning-generated forecast values for damage estimation.
• Performed damage assessments across irrigation reservoirs in Japan.
• Calculated potential loss associated with premature water release prior to heavy rainfall.
• Estimated potential damage to paddy rice at approximately 1.3 trillion yen across all growth stages.
• Identified Hokkaido, Shiga, and Aomori as the top three prefectures with significant potential damages.
• Quantified specific damages during the flowering stage for the top affected prefectures.