Abstract Aims Comparing temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of major cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) provides insights into their evolving relative burden. We examined incidence and prevalence trends of atrial fibrillation (AF), heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke from 2000 to 2022 and projected these measures to 2040. Methods and results In this Danish nationwide cohort study, we analysed data from national registries and Statistics Denmark for individuals aged 20–94 years. Each CVD was modelled separately using a statistical framework combining parametric survival modelling with an age-period-cohort incidence model, accounting for temporal trends and enabling future burden extrapolation. From 2000 to 2022, AF incidence increased, while HF, MI, and stroke incidences decreased. The prevalence of all four conditions increased. By 2040, AF incidence in Denmark is projected to rise by 28% from 20 683 to 26 376 new cases, and prevalence by 56% from 175 697 to 274 379 cases. HF and stroke incidences are expected to decrease by 2%, while MI incidence will decline by 30%. HF and stroke prevalence are projected to increase by 52% and 31%, respectively, whereas MI prevalence will decrease by 3%. Among individuals aged 65–94 years, new AF cases are projected to surpass the combined new cases of HF, MI, and stroke in 2040. Conclusion AF has become the most frequently diagnosed and prevalent major CVD, with a growing burden surpassing HF, MI, and stroke in older adults. These findings underscore the urgent need for updated healthcare policies and integrated care strategies to address the growing burden of AF.
Vinter et al. (Thu,) studied this question.