This paper develops a region-specific technological transformation strategy for the automotive and mobility sector in Southeast Lower Saxony (SON) under conditions of high uncertainty driven by electrification, digitalization, and automation. The study integrates three analytical components: (i) a SWOT-based baseline assessment of SON’s current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; (ii) a scenario-technique framework describing alternative German mobility futures toward 2035; and (iii) a two-round Delphi survey with experts from the Institutes of Automotive Engineering and Engineering Design to evaluate actionable transformation measures. SWOT factors are mapped to scenario key-factor projections and assessed using a trinary impact scale (−1/0/+1), followed by aggregation and normalization to derive scenario-specific change factors. Delphi-rated measures are then prioritized using scenario-overarching performance and SWOT relevance, yielding a tiered strategy concept. The resulting strategy is organized around five interdependent pillars: strengthening industry–research cooperation, advancing research in modern mobility, developing key mobility-support technologies (battery technology, AI, circular economy), expanding digital infrastructure, and upgrading R&D infrastructure and talent capacity, supported by enabling regulatory and workforce measures. The paper provides focus points from regional diagnosis to prioritized action, supporting robust strategic decision-making and adaptive capability building in SON.
Stein et al. (Tue,) studied this question.