Rapid urbanisation in African cities is intensifying solid waste challenges, especially in informal settlements where uneven services and socio-spatial heterogeneity complicate planning. This study quantifies the socio-spatial determinants of household solid waste generation in Mbagala Kuu Ward, a peri -urban informal settlement in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and translates results into an operational targeting tool for municipal decision-making. Household survey data (n = 115) were integrated with GIS-derived indicators of land use, population density and service accessibility and analysed using a Spatial Lag Gamma Generalised Linear Model with Moran’s Eigenvector Filtering to capture neighbourhood spillovers. Households generated an average of 5.94 kg day⁻1 (SD = 3.18), equivalent to 1.40 kg capita⁻1 day⁻1, of which only 47% was formally collected. Waste generation was spatially clustered (Moran’s I = 0.257, p 5 × more waste than residential areas, whereas urban agriculture and open spaces generated 40–––50% less. The model showed strong predictive performance (Pseudo-R2 = 0.79; MAE = 1.13 kg). To move from analysis to action, a Targeting Ratio assessment indicates that the highest-burden 20% of neighbourhood zones account for approximately 65% of total predicted waste, providing a practical basis for prioritising collection-point siting, routing and service frequency under constrained municipal resources. The findings support a shift from uniform service provision to neighbourhood-targeted waste planning, where infrastructure placement and collection schedules are aligned with spatially concentrated waste burdens and access constraints.
Mwakalinga et al. (Sun,) studied this question.