February 26, 2026
View Full PaperForecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in Women in the United States Through 2050: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association
Key Result
Future projections estimate the prevalence of total cardiovascular disease and stroke in US women will increase from 10.7% in 2020 to 14.4% in 2050, alongside rising rates of obesity and diabetes.
Key Points
- The aim is to forecast the prevalence of cardiovascular disease and stroke in women in the U.S. through 2050.
- Analyzed historical trends data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2020).
- Estimated prevalence trends through 2050 using census population growth data.
- Evaluated cardiovascular risk factors by age, race, and ethnicity.
- Prevalence of hypertension is projected to rise from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050.
- Obesity is forecast to increase from 43.9% to 61.2%; however, hypercholesterolemia is expected to decline from 42.1% to 22.3%.
- Total cardiovascular disease and stroke prevalence is expected to rise from 10.7% to 14.4% by 2050.
Study Design
Type
Observational
Structured PICO
P
Population
Women and girls in the United States
O
Outcome
Projected prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke through 2050
The burden of cardiovascular disease and risk factors among US women is projected to increase significantly by 2050, highlighting the need for focused clinical and public health interventions.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Forecasts for the future prevalence of cardiovascular disease and stroke are crucial to guide efforts to improve health outcomes across the life course for women. METHODS: Using historical trends from the 2015 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and census estimates for population growth, we estimated trends in prevalence through 2050 for cardiovascular risk factors based on suboptimal levels of Life’s Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke, overall and by age and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Among adult women overall, the prevalence of hypertension is estimated to increase from 48.6% in 2020 to 59.1% in 2050. Diabetes (14.9% to 25.3%) and obesity (43.9% to 61.2%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (42.1% to 22.3%). Prevalences of suboptimal diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking will decline over time, and inadequate sleep will increase. Prevalences of coronary disease (6.85% to 8.21%), heart failure (2.45% to 3.60%), stroke (4.14% to 6.74%), atrial fibrillation (1.58% to 2.31%), and total cardiovascular disease and stroke (10.7% to 14.4%) will rise. Similar trends are projected in girls 2 to 19 years of age, with an increase from 19.6% to 32.0% projected in obesity. Most adverse trends are projected to be more pronounced among women and girls identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and disease in women and girls will increase over the next 30 years. Focused clinical and public health interventions are needed across the life course to address these adverse trends.
Expert Takes6 quotes
1/6
“One in every three women will die from cardiovascular disease — maybe it's your grandmother, or your mother or your daughter. Additionally, more than 62 million women in the U.S. are living with some type of cardiovascular disease and that comes with a price tag of at least $200 billion, annually. Our estimates indicate that if we stay on the current path, these numbers will grow substantially over the next 25 to 30 years.”
Karen E. Joynt Maddox, Professor of medicine and public health, Washington UniversityWashington University School of Medicineauto_pipelineView source