The Barents Sea, a key Arctic ecotone and the most important region of fishing activities, is experiencing a rapid climate transformation. This process includes atlantification (intensification of the penetration of Atlantic waters), progressive warming of bottom layers (by 1.5–2°C over the last 30 years), and a reduction in seasonal ice cover by 20–30%. The effect of these changes on the invasive potential of boreal commercial crustaceans, including the edible crab (Cancer pagurus), Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus), and European lobster (Homarus gammarus), was studied in the work in conditions of three climate scenarios (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways; SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). Based on the ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) with integration of Bio-ORACLE oceanographic data and CMIP6 climate predictions, the prospects for their colonization of the Barents Sea by 2100 were estimated. The results demonstrated that under current conditions, the species ranges on the Barents Sea shelf are limited by a narrow coastal zone of Northern Norway (1–2 thousand km2). However, under the extreme SSP5-8.5 scenario (an increase in the bottom temperature by 3°C by 2100), the area of suitable waters for C. pagurus will reach 76.3 thousand km2; for N. norvegicus, 67.9 thousand km2; for H. gammarus, 8.5 thousand km2, mainly in the southwestern part of the sea. The range of H. gammarus will be limited to 1–2 thousand km2 and depend on rocky biotopes (7–12% of the southwestern part of the shelf), while C. pagurus and N. norvegicus will be associated with loose sediments (60–70% of the shelf). A competition with the Kamchatka crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) can create biotic barriers; however, its predicted shift in the north-east direction toward Kolguyev Island and Novaya Zemlya will decrease the pressure on southwestern areas, opening “ecological corridors” for boreal species. Modeling confirmed a key role of geomorphological factors: fragmentation of rocky biotopes forms isolated “ecological islands” limiting the dispersal of H. gammarus, while vast zones of loose soils contribute to the expansion of C. pagurus and N. norvegicus. The SDM approach demonstrated an acceptable efficiency for predicting areas in conditions of climate uncertainty, which confirms its potential value for bioresource management and ecological monitoring in the Barents Sea.
S. V. Bakanev (Sun,) studied this question.