India has experienced persistent food price inflation over the past three decades, posing significant challenges for policymakers and consumers alike. This study examines the influence of key determinants, including temperature, rainfall, food subsidies, crude oil prices, the global food price index and money supply, on food price inflation in India. Using monthly data from December 1991 to December 2021, the analysis employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration framework and dynamic ARDL simulation technique to assess both short-run and long-run effects. The results reveal that crude oil prices, temperature, rainfall and money supply exert a significant positive influence on food price inflation in the long run, while food subsidies are weakly associated with a reduction in inflation. In the short run, only crude oil prices and rainfall show a significant impact. These findings highlight the complex drivers of food inflation in India and suggest that targeted interventions, such as curbing oil dependency, promoting climate-resilient agriculture and refining food subsidy mechanisms can help stabilise domestic food prices. JEL Codes: B22, C22, E31
Nayak et al. (Thu,) studied this question.
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