Impacts of Vision Zero Interventions on Pedestrian Casualties in New York City: An 11-Year Staggered Difference-in-Difference Analysis

This study evaluates the effectiveness of nine New York City Vision Zero (VZ) traffic safety interventions implemented between 2013 and 2023. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design and negative binomial regression with intersection fixed effects, we analyzed 9,562 treated intersections to estimate associations between specific VZ interventions and annual pedestrian casualty counts (deaths and injuries). Four interventions were associated with significant reductions in pedestrian casualties: turn traffic calming (IRR 0.73), neighborhood slow zones (IRR 0.79), leading pedestrian interval signals (IRR 0.87), and citywide speed limit reduction (IRR 0.90). The remaining five interventions showed no statistically significant associations. Findings suggest that infrastructure and regulatory strategies that slow vehicle movement and enhance pedestrian visibility are most effective in reducing pedestrian harm. These results provide evidence to inform municipal prioritization of traffic safety investments.