The eastern honeybee (Apis cerana) is a keystone pollinator for native ecosystems and agricultural crops in China. However, its distribution faces significant uncertainty due to accelerating climate change. To quantify these risks and inform management strategies, we employed an ensemble species distribution model (Biomod2) integrating ten algorithms to project the suitable habitat of the eastern honeybee under current and future (2060s and 2100s) climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The ensemble model achieved an excellent predictive performance (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.8). The current suitable habitat spans approximately 1.47 million km2, primarily south of the Yangtze River. Biomod2 simulation indicates that the precipitation of the wettest month and mean diurnal temperature range are the dominant environmental stressors influencing the shift in the spatial distributions of the eastern honeybee. Comparisons between current and future climate scenarios reveal a distinct trend of spatial range contraction in southern China and a northwestward shift of the habitat centroid. The most severe impact is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with a potential net habitat loss of 42.25% by 2100. We propose a dynamic conservation strategy that prioritizes the protection of southern climate refugia while managing habitat connectivity to facilitate the species’ migration, thereby safeguarding agricultural resilience.
Chen et al. (Fri,) studied this question.