• Spatiotemporal modelling of SOC stocks and pools at 25 m resolution was conducted. • Spatially explicit carbon inputs from crop residues and manure were incorporated. • Comprehensive assessment of land use and manure effects on SOC stocks and pools. • SOC stocks in the Netherlands increased by 13.2% in grassland from 1986 to 2022. • SOC stocks declined by 10.4% in cropland and by 3.9% in conversion areas. Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir, with soil organic carbon (SOC) playing a critical role in maintaining soil quality and associated ecosystem services. Accurately estimating SOC stocks at high spatial and temporal resolution over large scales remains challenging, particularly in agricultural systems where carbon inputs are often uncertain or unavailable. In this study, we used the RothC model to simulate SOC stocks in Dutch agricultural mineral soils from 1986 to 2022, at 25 m × 25 m resolution. We examined the temporal and spatial variation of the total SOC stock and its distribution over RothC carbon pools and unravelled how livestock manure inputs and land use affect the observed trends. Averaged SOC stocks in the topsoil (0 – 30 cm) increased by 13.2% under grassland, decreased by 10.4% under cropland, and decreased by 3.9% in areas with changing land use. Carbon gains in grassland were linked to systematically higher manure inputs and accumulation in stable pools, whereas lower manure inputs and more intensive management led to declining labile SOC pools. Independent validation on three spatial datasets showed the highest model performance for point-based field data (model efficiency coefficient MEC = 0.32 in 1986 and 0.37 in 2022). Observed changes in SOC over time could be less well reproduced (MEC ≈ 0) across all datasets, but simulated spatiotemporal patterns were consistent with previous observational studies. The study illustrates the potential of RothC for national-scale SOC stock assessment and monitoring, while highlighting the need for improved input data and temporal validation data. Importantly, this modelling approach effectively captures SOC stock dynamics, which remains challenging for purely empirical, statistical models. Future work could benefit from hybrid modelling approaches that integrate RothC with machine learning, enhancing the ability to capture currently unexplained variability and improve simulation performance.
Lai et al. (Sat,) studied this question.