Sustainable Water Management in a Complex Watershed: A Case Study in Tulancingo Valley, Mexico

This research analyzes water availability in the Tulancingo Valley (Hidalgo State, Mexico), a representative region with notable industrial and agricultural activities, over the period from 2013 to 2050. A conceptual model was developed and calculated with the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) simulation platform, calibrated with 2014 data, to estimate future water demand under mitigation scenarios that incorporate inertial population and industrial growth, as well as projected climate change trends. The simulation identifies the key actions that support sustainable water-resource management. Results show that agricultural groundwater demand is the dominant pressure on the aquifer, which is projected to become overexploited by 2050 (−185.65 hm3). The most effective mitigation strategies involve increasing the use of available surface water in both industrial and agricultural sectors; under these measures, the aquifer could recover and reach an annual availability of 231.7 hm3, ensuring long-term water sustainability of the valley. The modeling approach applied here offers a useful framework for similar assessments in other complex areas.