Biomass-to-Ethylene: A techno-economic perspective on multiple feedstocks

This paper focuses on the synthesis of ethylene from various biomass feedstocks, with ethanol as a transitional chemical platform. Four different production routes are investigated: two first-generation pathways using sugarcane and cereal crops (e.g., corn), and 2 s-generation alternatives based on lignocellulosic materials (e.g., corn stover, wheat straw). An analysis orientated to technological performance and economic feasibility comparison is established in depth. The reference facility is modelled with an annual output of approximately 117,000t of ethylene, which would be suitable for industrial-scale deployment. The project results include material and energy balances, along with a financial evaluation using metrics such as the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Minimum Ethylene Selling Price (MESP). Among all scenarios addressed, no route initially emerges as an economically viable option under current assumptions. However, it can be stated that the sugar-based ethylene production pathway reaches the best economic results, producing an NPV of -€173M€ at current ethylene prices and an MESP of €1265/t of ethylene. The remaining pathways require cost reductions (i.e., reducing biomass purchasing cost, maintenance and overhead, and consumptions) to achieve profitability. Sensitivity analyses state the significant influence of biomass procurement costs and market price fluctuations on economic outcomes. Overall, the findings of this research underscore the promise of bioethylene as a value-added chemical, supporting broader efforts toward decarbonization. • An economic analysis of ethylene synthesis from various feedstocks is presented. • Sugar-based ethylene production path has a net present value of -€173M€. • For this path, the minimum ethylene selling price needed is €1265/t of ethylene. • The cost of biomass is the highest one in all he paths 36 %–59 % of the share.