From science to policy: climate change risks assessment and adaptation planning in agriculture in Serbia

While frequency and intensity of climate hazards are increasing, and agriculture struggles to mitigate the negative impacts, many interventions are based on the past events, rarely accounting for future intensification of climate impacts and potential damages they cause. Risk assessment means the projection of vulnerability to climate change under future conditions and requires complex knowledge on the vulnerability of different types of agricultural production in different regions, and the vulnerability of other components of the climate system, like water and soil. EU Adaptation Strategy highlights the importance of “smart” adaptation, meaning that the implementation of scientific knowledge into policy must be fast, the policy must rely on scientific evidence, and communication between the science, policy and practitioners must be tightened to avoid maladaptation and, consequently, increasing risks and costs. In Serbia, development of adaptation planning on national level started with engagement of scientists from different fields of expertise, which delivered the knowledge on risks, or identified the gaps in knowledge and data availability to implement risk assessment, and proposed adaptation measures. In agriculture were engaged scientists with expertise in meteorology and climate change, viticulture, fruit growing, annual crop production, soil and water management and livestock breeding. Using the experience and knowledge from previous reporting in National Communications to UNFCCC, interdisciplinary projects and available data on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and future risks for each type of production were assessed. Risk maps were provided for varieties of different sensitives, and upscaled to regional level. Methodologies for risk assessment in viticulture and fruit growing were derived based on the methodologies applied in zoning of Serbia for these types of production, while for crop production set of risk indices was derived to account for change of phenological development of plants under climate changing conditions and compound effects of high temperatures and water deficit. For livestock breeding focus was on assessing risk of climate change for meadows and pastures, and the heat stress for animals. The science provided the recommendations for actions required to implement short-term adaptation and long-term adaptation, supporting soil and water preservation, and identified gaps that needs to be addressed in the next years. Policy makers, following the provided guidance for adaptation priorities, defined the of measures under the Climate Change Adaptation Programme of Republic of Serbia for the period 2023-2030 with Action Plan for 2024-2030. In this paper are presented methodologies used for scientific assessment of risks in agriculture, outcomes which led to definition of adaptation measures and their transformation into policy on national level, as well as expected outcomes.