Land subsidence constitutes a critical hazard to coastal megacities globally, amplifying flood risks and damaging infrastructure. Taking Tianjin—a major port city underlain by compressible sediments and affected by groundwater over-exploitation—as a case study, we address two key research gaps: the absence of a quantitative framework coupling groundwater extraction with construction land expansion, and the inadequate separation of seasonal and long-term subsidence drivers. We developed an integrated remote-sensing-based approach: high-resolution subsidence time series (2016–2023) were derived via Small BAseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) using Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery, validated against leveling measurements (R > 0.885, error < 20 mm). This subsidence dataset was fused with groundwater level records and annual construction land maps. Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) isolated trend, seasonal, and residual components, which were input into a Random Forest (RF) model to quantify the relative contributions of subsidence drivers. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and Cross-Wavelet Transform (CWT) were further employed to characterize temporal patterns and lag effects between subsidence and its drivers. Our results reveal a distinct shifting subsidence pattern: “areal expansion but intensity weakening.” Groundwater control policies mitigated five historical subsidence funnels, reducing areas with severe subsidence from 72.36% to <5%, while the total subsiding area expanded by 1024.74 km2, with new zones emerging (e.g., northern Dongli District). The RF model identified the long-term groundwater level trend as the dominant driver (59.5% contribution), followed by residual (23.3%) and seasonal (17.2%) components. Cross-spectral analysis confirmed high coherence between subsidence and long-term groundwater trends; the seasonal component exhibited a dominant resonance period of 12 months and a consistent subsidence response lag of 3–4 months. Construction impacts were conceptualized as a “load accumulation-soil compression-time lag” mechanism, with high-intensity engineering projects inducing significant local subsidence. This study provides a robust quantitative framework for disentangling the complex interactions between subsidence, groundwater, and urban expansion, offering critical insights for evidence-based hazard mitigation and sustainable urban planning in vulnerable coastal environments worldwide.
Xu et al. (Tue,) studied this question.