Can Human Capital Mitigate the Negative Impact of Aging on Labor Productivity?

China’s total fertility rate has continued to decline, and the country entered an era of negative population growth starting from 2022. The decline in fertility rates and the extension of life expectancy have accelerated the pace of aging, increasing the burden of elderly care and presenting challenges to China’s economic development. Human capital is an important factor in improving labor productivity. There is skill complementarity between high-skilled and low-skilled labor, and the degree of matching between high-skilled and low-skilled labor is very important for economic growth. Against the backdrop of a declining fertility rate, it is an important topic to study whether human capital can mitigate the negative impact of aging on labor productivity. An econometric model was established using panel data from 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2020. This study reveal that different dimensions of human capital, such as human capital stock, high-skilled human capital, and labor force skill complementarity, can act as moderators in mitigating the negative consequences of aging. The findings indicate that human capital stock and high-skilled human capital play moderating roles across most regions, except for the central region. In contrast, labor force skill complementarity emerges as a significant moderator predominantly in the Eastern and Southern regions. Moreover, human capital stock and high-skilled human capital exhibit more pronounced effects in regions with lower aging levels. Conversely, labor force skill complementarity demonstrates greater moderating impact in regions characterized by higher levels of aging. This study highlights the complementary role of skills of low-skilled and high-skilled labor force when aging level deepens, which provides useful insights to solve the aging problem.