Abstract The official 2024/25 Australian summer monsoon (ASM) onset occurred on 7 February, more than two weeks later than the previous record. Defined using Darwin winds, the official ASM typically arrives between mid-December and mid-January. Here, we investigate (1) why the ASM onset was record late, despite La Niña-like conditions, and (2) if the late ASM onset was consistent with other unofficial monsoon and rainy season onset definitions. Our results show earlier onsets when using wind and rainfall-based definitions, mainly due to strong synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability. Two onset definitions were triggered in December 2024 when the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) contributed to deep convection and above-average rain over northern Australia. In late January, a monsoon trough formed over northeast and northwest Australia, but not over Darwin. With the MJO in a suppressed state, the Darwin region experienced record-breaking January temperatures. The ASM eventually arrived in early February, with the reason behind its historically late onset likely a result of weather noise and variability. Another location, ∼1200 km east of Darwin, did not experience such a late onset, using similar definitions. Relevant to monsoon systems globally, our study highlights the limitations of local onset or wind-only definitions, which may not necessarily capture the large-scale monsoonal conditions, and be amplified by short-term weather variability.
Cowan et al. (Thu,) studied this question.