Affective Experiences From Exercise Predict 1-Year Physical Activity Behavior in Middle School Students

Introduction: The transition from childhood to adolescence is a critical period for the development of physical activity (PA) behaviors, as this stage marks the beginning of a well-documented decline in PA levels that continues into adulthood. However, it remains largely unknown which determinants are most influential in this stage of life. According to the Affective- Reflective Theory (ART) of physical inactivity and exercise proposed by Brand and Ekkekakis, PA behavior is driven by both “reflective evaluations” and “affective valuation”. The concept of “affective valuation” has been further refined into the construct of “affective exercise experiences”, defined as a summary valenced appraisal—ranging from pleasant to unpleasant— based on an individuals lifetime associations with exercise and their corresponding affective responses. This study aims to assess the predictive power of affective exercise experiences in determining PA behavior among middle school students. The hypothesis is that attraction to exercise—the motivational outcome variable in the conceptual model proposed by Ekkekakis et al.—effectively predicts PA behavior after one year. Methods: Data were collected as part of an annual PA monitoring project conducted in schools in Ferrara, Italy. Students completed the International Physical Activity Questionnaire for Children and Adolescents (IPAQ-A) and the Affective Exercise Experiences Questionnaire (AFFEXX). Only students with two assessments spaced one year apart were included in the study. Results: A total of 228 middle school students (mean age = 12.62 ± 0.83 years; 135 males, 93 females) were assessed over two consecutive school years. At baseline, participants were highly physically active, engaging in an average of 21 ± 23 MET/h/week of PA, predominantly at vigorous intensity (162 ± 192 min/week), with a smaller portion performed at moderate intensity (92 ± 155 min/week). All AFFEXX domains measured at baseline were significantly correlated with PA at follow-up (r values ranging from 0.14 for energy-calmness to 0.38 for showing-off–shying away). Regression analysis indicated that attraction towards exercise significantly predicted follow-up PA (β= 5.9, p < 0.001). When examining the relationship between attraction and PA intensity, attraction significantly predicted vigorous PA (β= 51.1, p = 0.002), whereas its effect on moderate PA was not significant (β = 16.2, p = 0.11). Conclusion: These findings highlight the role of affective experiences from exercise in shaping future PA behaviors, particularly in relation to vigorous-intensity activities. Understanding children’s affective appraisals of exercise, their exercise environment, and their overall attraction to exercise may be crucial for promoting sustained PA engagement in youth.