Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) can provide actionable feedback for demand response (DR) when direct measurements of device states are unavailable. We propose a reproducible, engineering-oriented pipeline for detecting ON/OFF states of end-use load groups from an aggregated active power time series. The method uses robust hysteresis-based labeling with adaptive thresholds derived from the median and median absolute deviation, followed by compact feature engineering restricted to global active power (GAP). After removing collinear features (|r| > 0.98), permutation importance is used to retain informative predictors. Probabilistic binary classifiers (LGBM, Histogram-based Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and CatBoost) are trained for each target load, and the decision threshold is optimized via Fβ to balance missed events and false alarms. A post-processing stage stabilizes predictions by smoothing probabilities and suppressing spurious triggers. Model quality is assessed with both sample-wise metrics and event-based metrics that credit the correct detection of switching intervals within a time tolerance. Experiments on the open “Individual Household Electric Power Consumption” dataset (1-min resolution, 2007–2010) demonstrate that lightweight gradient boosting models, particularly LGBM, deliver reliable and interpretable state estimates suitable for practical DR integration and edge deployment.
Zhukovskiy et al. (Thu,) studied this question.