The loss of the MV Estonia has been investigated by various organizations since the accident in September 1994. The root cause of the accident has been assumed to be known, and the consequent sinking process is well established. However, in September 2020, a new video recording by an underwater ROV was published, showing a new, previously unknown, penetrating damage on the starboard side of the MV Estonia wreck lying on the seabed. Based on this new evidence, the Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau (ESIB) initiated a preliminary assessment of the new information on the MV Estonia accident. Whether the New Side Damage (NSD) on the starboard side was already present while the MV Estonia was afloat on the surface, or whether it resulted from the collision of the sinking vessel with the seabed somewhat later, is an important issue needing clarification: In the first case, the validity of the conclusions on the root cause of the accident presented in the previous studies could prove premature. One of the goals of the present investigation by the Hamburg Ship Model Basin (HSVA) is to shed light on this question: The results of the numerical simulations of the sinking process carried out for various damage configurations in seaway using not only single simulations, but also a statistical approach are presented.
Kim et al. (Fri,) studied this question.