This thesis aims to reveal the determinants of jeonse guarantee accidents by using a spatial panel model centered on the Seoul metropolitan area. Amid rising volatility in the housing market, the frequency of such accidents has steadily increased, undermining the capacity of the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG) to provide guarantees. The empirical results revealed a pronounced High-High cluster of jeonse guarantee accidents centered in the southwestern Seoul metropolitan area. Spatial panel estimations confirm that spatial dependence significantly and positively affects accident occurrence. Furthermore, unlike apartments, multi-family (villa) housing demonstrates substantial spatial spillover effects, as neighboring jeonse-to-price ratios positively influence the local accident rates. These findings indicate that villa-type jeonse accidents display spatial diffusion characteristics, underscoring the need for policy measures that incorporate regional spillover effects and adopt management strategies differentiated by housing type.
Kim et al. (Sun,) studied this question.
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