What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to assess which percentage, 0.0000001% or 99.9999999%, elicits a greater sense of surprise.

March 12, 2026Open Access

Which is more surprising, “0.0000001%” or “99.9999999%?

Q: What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Other. Primary outcome: Evaluation of the perceived value and surprise of extreme probability values (p=<0.001).

KNKuninori NakamuraTokyo Institute of Technology

Key Result

Extreme probability values led to different assessments of surprise than previously studied integer-order probabilities, with significant interactions based on the context of potential winnings.

Key Points

The aim is to assess which percentage, 0.0000001% or 99.9999999%, elicits a greater sense of surprise.
Comparison of the two extreme percentages
Analysis of human perception of probability and surprise
0.0000001% is often perceived as surprising due to its extremity
99.9999999% may also surprise but to a lesser extent based on contextual framing.

PICO

Primary Outcome

Evaluation of the perceived value and surprise of extreme probability values, p=<0.001

Main Result

p-value: p=<0.001

Abstract

0000001% 99.9999999%?

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Cite This Study

Kuninori Nakamura (Wed,) reported a other. Extreme probability values led to different assessments of surprise than previously studied integer-order probabilities, with significant interactions based on the context of potential winnings.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b2573196eeacc4fcec5dd1 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.89.0_747