ABSTRACT Cropland abandonment presents a persistent threat to global food security, making strategic reuse a critical priority. While previous research has focused on the monofunctional potential of existing abandonment, few studies have formulated comprehensive utilization frameworks that integrate both current and potential abandonment to maximize combined benefits. To address this gap, this study quantified cropland abandonment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 1990 to 2020 and then developed a bottom‐up abandonment risk assessment and forecast framework to project the future trajectories under various development scenarios and proposed optimal reuse strategies for underutilized cropland. Results revealed an average annual cropland abandonment rate of 6.48% over the study period across the YREB, with the majority concentrated in the upstream mountainous and hilly regions. Under the state of scenario superimposition, potential abandonment was projected to reach 2.06 × 10 4 km 2 by 2030, increasing the proportion of underutilized cropland to 12.46% of the total, with Sichuan exhibiting the highest proportion. Findings suggested that dedicating all underutilized cropland to a single function failed to maximize combined benefits. Instead, an optimal strategy involved allocating 45.71% of this land to agriculture and 54.19% to ecology. This synergistic approach could unlock 160.36% of the combined benefits—a 37.89% increase over the current state. This transition would necessitate a 44.75% conversion of land‐use patterns, with recultivation concentrated in midstream and upstream provinces and afforestation prioritized in the midstream. This study provides a comprehensive framework for tracking future abandonment trends and offers a practical reference for maximizing combined benefits of underutilized cropland.
Chen et al. (Mon,) studied this question.