The effect of ruling party change and party ideology on participatory budgeting stability: Survivors and victims of local elections

Participatory Budgeting (PB) has demonstrated a remarkable capacity for global diffusion. However, its ability to endure over time and become fully institutionalized remains more limited. This study addresses one of the most frequently cited explanations for PB’s instability: changes in the ruling party. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, we argue that it is not party turnover per se that leads to the discontinuation of PB, but rather the ideological orientation of such changes. To investigate this hypothesis, we draw on an original dataset covering 295 Spanish municipalities, including both cases of PB continuity and discontinuity. Our findings indicate that changes in the ruling party alone do not account for the interruption of PBs. Instead, the key determinant is the ideological direction of government change or continuity: PB is more likely to persist when left-wing parties remain in power or when transitions occur toward left-wing administrations.