Livelihood vulnerability of food systems in Agro-Ecological Region I of Southern Zambia

Climate change has significantly disrupted the food systems and livelihoods of low-resource rural communities, particularly in Southern Zambia's Agroecological Region I. Agroecological Region I, receives mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm with an increasing reliance on rain-fed agriculture. This study evaluates the vulnerability of food system livelihoods to climate change in Kazungula, Gwembe, Chirundu, and Siavonga districts using the LVI-IPCC framework outlined in the sixth assessment report (IPCC-AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The LVI-IPCC for the respondents was formed by combining its three components; exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity from 195 rural households, who were selected using a stratified random sampling method. LVI was employed to identify the differential vulnerability of the four districts to climate change effects. An explanatory sequential mixed-methods design was employed, in which quantitative household survey data ( n = 195) were first used to construct the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and LVI-IPCC metrics, followed by focus group discussions and key-informant interviews to contextualise and interpret observed vulnerability patterns. Results show that households across all districts perceived climate change primarily through erratic rainfall, droughts, rising temperatures, and shifting rainfall seasonality, with perceived climate risk intensity varying significantly by district due to differences in livelihood sensitivity and adaptive capacity rather than hazard exposure. With regards to vulnerability, Siavonga had the highest vulnerability (LVI-IPCC = 0.0711) due to high exposure and limited adaptive capacity, while Kazungula had the lowest vulnerability (0.022). Dependence on rain-fed crop production was the main factor affecting sensitivity across districts. Farmers perceived rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and reduced yields, confirming the consistency between the measured and perceived risks. These findings indicate that the impacts of climate on food systems stem from interconnected biophysical and socioeconomic pressures. It is crucial to strengthen the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in this region through irrigation interventions, livelihood diversification, and integrating early warning systems and climate-information services. The study provides evidence to guide district-level adaptation planning and facilitates the development of context-specific strategies that increase the resilience of food systems in Agroecological Region I and similar regions in Southern Zambia.