This paper evaluates the proposed enforcement of the cannabis residency requirement (i-criterium) within Amsterdam’s 2026 socio-economic landscape. Utilizing a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) framework, the study identifies a critical "Fiscal Reciprocity" deficit: international visitors face a cumulative 33.5% tax cliff (21% VAT and 12.5% Municipal Tourist Tax) while being excluded from the public health safeguards of the 98.4% Bibob-compliant retail sector. Econometric modeling, utilizing a Substitution Rate (σ=0.3), forecasts a total economic contraction of €488 million, with a concurrent €55 million "Criminal Capture" shift toward unregulated street networks. The study concludes by advocating for a "De-Risking Strategy,” a 24-month regulatory pause, to evaluate existing fiscal deterrents before implementing prohibitionist policies.
Joe Spencer (Thu,) studied this question.