This study provides an empirical analysis of parole decision-making in China, examining 1,098 offenders housed in the prisons of Z Province. Drawing on questionnaire data and archival records, it models parole decisions using a binary logistic regression framework and tests 30 potential influencing factors across 3 theoretical dimensions: retributive justice, preventivism and community controllability, in order to identify the key determinants of parole approval in China. The findings reveal a critical imbalance: while community controllability and retributive justice factors heavily influence parole decisions, preventivism factors that focus on mitigating future risk play a disproportionately minor role. This misalignment exposes a deeper systemic flaw in the integration of the parole system’s retribution, prevention, and rehabilitation functions. To address these challenges, this research proposes reducing the influence of retributive justice factors, enhancing preventivism assessments with data-driven tools, and recalibrating community controllability factors to prioritize diversionary control and corrective treatment. These reforms reflect an effort to align punitive measures with rehabilitative and re-integrative strategies under a framework that emphasizes risk prevention and social stability. By adopting these reforms, China’s parole system can transform into a more effective tool for justice and reintegration.
Xu et al. (Thu,) studied this question.