Determining the Variables for Predicting University Students’ Self-Efficacy Perceptions Towards Geoheritage Using Classification and Regression Trees

The purpose of this research was to determine the variables that predict university students’ self-efficacy perceptions towards geoheritage and to reveal the importance ranking of these variables, their threshold values, and self-efficacy profiles formed by their conditional combinations. The study was based on data obtained from 550 students studying in education faculties in Türkiye. In addition to demographic indicators and experiences with lessons or activities related to geodiversity and the environment, the model included nature connection, place attachment, motivation to participate in nature-based tourism, positive attitudes towards the environment, and information sources about geodiversity. Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) analysis was used to reveal the threshold-based effects and interactions of the variables. The final CRT model explained approximately 28% of the variance in geoheritage self-efficacy, indicating a moderate level of explanatory power for an exploratory, non-parametric classification approach. The findings showed that a level of interaction with nature below the threshold of 25.50 was associated with the lowest self-efficacy profile, regardless of other characteristics. Higher scores reflected stronger levels of nature connection, motivation, and environmental attitudes, and the reported thresholds corresponded to observed score units on the respective scales. In students with a high relationship with nature, the self-efficacy score of 47.50 was further differentiated self-efficacy profiles by motivation; in the high-motivation group, the highest self-efficacy profile was formed when the environmental attitude score exceeded 50.50. In the low-motivation group, the region where they lived and the quality of their information source (sources other than just media, such as university, books, articles, and events) were among the variables that differentiated self-efficacy profiles. The results highlighted the importance of targeted interventions in geoheritage education that focused on connecting with nature, increasing motivation, and establishing reliable learning channels, while acknowledging the exploratory and non-causal nature of the analytical approach. The nature relationship variable was the strongest discriminator, acting as a prerequisite for geoheritage self-efficacy. Motivation to participate in nature-based tourism and environmental attitudes conditionally increased self-efficacy. The study was directly related to the sustainable future agenda of nature-based tourism in the special call for geoheritage in Türkiye. Information source and the region where one lived were significant moderators of self-efficacy. The weak performance of demographic variables and indicators such as course enrollment/activity participation in the model suggested a need for an experience-based and interpretation-focused approach in geoeducation design.