Objective: To identify the underexplored nature of localized, longterm spatiotemporal patterns (2014-2023) and predictive modeling feasibility in these regions. The analysis specifically explored the potential for robust forecasting of dengue incidence trends. Methods: Dengue incidence trends were analyzed across five northeastern Thai provinces: Sisaket (SSK), Ubon Ratchathani (UBN), Yasothon (YST), Amnat Charoen (ACR), and Mukdahan (MDH) over a ten-year period (2014-2023). Analysis of Kruskal-Wallis H test followed by post hoc Dunn’s tests with Bonferroni adjustment were used for inter-provincial comparisons. Seasonal- Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) and Seasonal Index calculations were applied to identify seasonal patterns, and Simple Linear Regression to assess the influence of monthly rainfall on dengue seasonality. Additionally, a negative binomial regression analysis was conducted, and spatial autocorrelation was investigated using Moran's I analysis. Results: The analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity and distinct cyclical patterns in dengue incidence. Pronounced annual peaks consistently occurred during the rainy season (June-September), with major epidemics observed in 2015, 2019, and 2023. Inter-provincial comparisons revealed statistically significant differences in monthly dengue incidence across the study area (H=10.08, P=0.039). Post-hoc Dunn’s tests indicated that UBN and SSK had higher transmission burden compared to YST and MDH. Seasonal Index calculations confirmed July as the predominant overall peak month (indices 1.4-2.5), with minimal dengue activity from January to March. While rainfall significantly influenced seasonality across all provinces. A negative binomial regression analysis indicated that all of the variables included in the model had no statistically significant relationship with dengue incidence. Furthermore, a Moran's I analysis revealed a significant clustering effect only in YST (1=0.314, P =0.037). Conclusions: The finding underscores the critical requirement for adopting a highly focused approach, necessitating a shift toward region-specific interventions to effectively combat dengue and sustain progress toward good health and well-being for all.
Loyha et al. (Sun,) studied this question.