The Imminent Population Decline in Turkey After Covid-19 and the Syrian Crysis

This study examines recent demographic trends in Türkiye and provides population projections for the 2023–2040 period. Using 2014–2022 panel data from TURKSTAT, based on registered addresses and disaggregated by place of birth, we distinguish between native (81 provinces) and foreign-born populations. Historical population growth rates are calculated and future trends are projected using regression-based models. Given the sharp decline in population growth observed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, two scenarios are considered: one assuming a permanent effect, and another assuming a temporary shock. Our findings indicate a rapid decline in native population growth, turning negative by 2028, with the native population peaking at approximately 83 million. Nearly half of current population growth is attributable to the foreign-born population, which is officially near 5 million and expected to rise further. By 2040, the native population is projected to fall to 76 million, while the total population is expected to range between 86 and 94 million—depending on immigration policies—of which 11% to 19% (up to 18 million people) will be foreign-born. The results suggest that natural population growth in most Turkish provinces has nearly ceased, and immigration has become the dominant driver of demographic change.